tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post1955878734799065900..comments2023-11-05T02:42:49.235-05:00Comments on Mission to a(nother) Marathon: Running the numbersMarlenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08230997094889375925noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-86260746830762621602009-10-08T16:26:05.420-04:002009-10-08T16:26:05.420-04:00I have been playing around with McMillan a lot rec...I have been playing around with McMillan a lot recently, too. I think for me (and probably you, too) I have underperformed to my potential in the marathon in the past. That's why your other distance predictions are so off based on the marathon time.<br /><br />For myself, I am taking this to mean I need to get tougher in tackling 26.2!RoadBunnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02628262932938865868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-64031220197503433062009-10-08T08:22:21.601-04:002009-10-08T08:22:21.601-04:00In talking to people about this it seems predicted...In talking to people about this it seems predicted times seem to be closer based on type of training and experience you have. My shorter to half times are very close, my marathon time is not. Marathons are all about endurance and experience. Most people I know that run them well have 3-5 years of high mileage base training to fall back on when the going gets tough after the 20 mile marker. Keep it up and I am sure you will see the gap in predicted times become smaller and smallerchris mcpeakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15488479732649522465noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-84513234626539911812009-10-07T18:43:07.400-04:002009-10-07T18:43:07.400-04:00i think SO much of the marathon distance is mental...i think SO much of the marathon distance is mental :) obviously... but it also looks like you are speeeedy in the short distances too! just gotta keep doing them and it will come! i definitely think you have a speedy marathon in you though :)Aronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17418163097675963683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-64565029301667703142009-10-07T16:00:17.643-04:002009-10-07T16:00:17.643-04:00I would say it's all mental. I believe you ar...I would say it's all mental. I believe you are faster than you think in longer distance. :-)runwufhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00375917336040100194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-74765178443674351382009-10-06T22:39:47.935-04:002009-10-06T22:39:47.935-04:00Ha uhh WOW - I'm glad I've never messed wi...Ha uhh WOW - I'm glad I've never messed with that calculator. I'd probably never stop....<br /><br />I would say *yes* - probably over analyzing just a little bit. Simply because you can hold a pace for a 5K doesn't necessarily translate that speed (through some Universal equation) to 26.2 miles!! In my opinion, the two just don't relate. You're using different muscles, different strategies, different training plans (obviously) and a different mentality altogether. <br /><br />It does look like a fun running toy though - adding to the list (garmin?! ehhh).....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-4879008797481814472009-10-06T17:07:31.165-04:002009-10-06T17:07:31.165-04:00truthfully i'd be crunching the numbers too, b...truthfully i'd be crunching the numbers too, but it sounds like you've gotten some good info and advice, and know that it's a guideline only. Don't be hard on yourself k? You're a rockstar.Mel-2nd Chanceshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15040126521403230005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-3243670533014463352009-10-06T13:01:11.002-04:002009-10-06T13:01:11.002-04:00I think that your strength is in the short distanc...I think that your strength is in the short distances (half to 5k). not to say you couldn't get better at the marathon. I would say the calculators are just rough estimates and obviously you have shown you can do better than they predict based on a marathon time. I would say that a half marathon would best predict a marathon time because they are so close. Comparing a 5k and marathon just doesn't seem reasonable to me because they are totally different races - one is more about sprinting while the other is about endurance!Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01210098462417950977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-59054850612681776112009-10-06T11:08:58.946-04:002009-10-06T11:08:58.946-04:00interesting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i have no idea what it ...interesting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i have no idea what it means other than the predictions are just that... guidelines. but this could definitely get you all wrapped up in a headache if you spend too much time wondering, lol. i would just keep pushing yourself and see where it takes you! and run the distance you want to run!No Longer Usinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16711306638916660889noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-2608591353526490412009-10-06T10:46:29.035-04:002009-10-06T10:46:29.035-04:00McMillan made me think I could BQ and still tells ...McMillan made me think I could BQ and still tells me I should be able to run a 3:35 Marathon... UGH!!<br /><br />I think it is a good guidline to help know what optimal paces you should use...but not living up to what McMillan says is NOT a fail in any way. It is a Tool and like any other tool parts can be a little broken..<br /><br />Hugs to numbers..I am a numbers freak and have inputted my NEW Pr's into McMillan every time..Mel -Tall Mom on the Runhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03777751504773574393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-57081607916036263852009-10-06T10:30:35.881-04:002009-10-06T10:30:35.881-04:00HA, I feel the same way about my shorter race time...HA, I feel the same way about my shorter race times vs. my longer race times. But I gotta admit that I just don't really train for short races the same way I do for long ones, plus I don't seem to have the discipline to hold on to the pain of going hard & fast (long and slower is easier for me). <br /><br />But I think we can both make improvements to get closer to what those calculators say. Keep plugging!ShirleyPerlyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09237828591170908960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-63358554870498311442009-10-06T10:04:31.601-04:002009-10-06T10:04:31.601-04:00hmm I had to stop using those because I got all me...hmm I had to stop using those because I got all mentally psyched about the numbers...guess thats why I don't race muchRunToTheFinishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13995696358152941044noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-86647351494216762542009-10-06T09:59:14.087-04:002009-10-06T09:59:14.087-04:00While I don't put much into those calculators,...While I don't put much into those calculators, it's really interesting to see. If nothing else, it gives you "some" number to always shoot for...Denisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07202296893022308340noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-51002915941652577392009-10-06T09:47:00.353-04:002009-10-06T09:47:00.353-04:00Actually your number crunching gives me hope for a...Actually your number crunching gives me hope for a faster 5K. Sure my marathon will be slow, but I have a super speedy 5K ahead of me! LOL!<br /><br />Don't sweat the numbers. The calculator doesn't factor in hard work, dedication, and sheer determination.B.o.B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/09778073562721277426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-73624185925529446622009-10-06T09:43:48.988-04:002009-10-06T09:43:48.988-04:00You said it yourself girl, it's a guideline! O...You said it yourself girl, it's a guideline! Only you know what you are capable of!!! You have it in you and you will find it!Jen Feenyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12857381064146340597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-82914728449914301792009-10-06T09:03:48.830-04:002009-10-06T09:03:48.830-04:00Ugh, McMillan. Yeah, my times are all over the pla...Ugh, McMillan. Yeah, my times are all over the place, too. My best 5K is right in line with my best 15K but that's it. Based on all of my shorter races, I should be able to run faster than the 4:12 I ran in the marathon. Maybe some day!!!Felice Devinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18038461010518039172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-89483058105487070062009-10-06T09:01:03.986-04:002009-10-06T09:01:03.986-04:00Yes, you're over analyzing. Stop it and enjoy ...Yes, you're over analyzing. Stop it and enjoy your 16-minute PR. <br /><br />Continuing to go through these calculators takes away from the true story: you're a rock star. No calculator can tell you that.Road Warriorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06185561385105959496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-26888035283981274332009-10-06T08:45:18.852-04:002009-10-06T08:45:18.852-04:00Okay, I'm having a hard time finding it but if...Okay, I'm having a hard time finding it but if you go to http://www.jim2.net and click the link "Predicting A Marathon Time from a 10k" under the Marathoning section you can find some good info explaining the discrepancies.sneakersisterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06878396821365950500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-90086040295587933102009-10-06T08:40:11.155-04:002009-10-06T08:40:11.155-04:00Very rarely will your own times fall within the li...Very rarely will your own times fall within the linear scale that McMillen predicts. It will more often fall in line for the elite marathoners, but not us regular joe schmoes. There is a great discussion about this. I'll see if I can find it and post it here for you.sneakersisterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06878396821365950500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-86340927630723865602009-10-06T08:19:59.179-04:002009-10-06T08:19:59.179-04:00MacMillan has me running a 4:02 marathon. I learn...MacMillan has me running a 4:02 marathon. I learned to take them with a grain of salt after I saw THAT!joyRuNhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03033973041471006513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-25732803813299173122009-10-06T08:04:04.886-04:002009-10-06T08:04:04.886-04:00I think the marathon is much harder to predict a t...I think the marathon is much harder to predict a time for than any other race because in order to accurately predict a finish time, the runner would have to maintain a consistent pace for SO long! It's one thing to run consistently timed miles in a 5K, 10K, even an HM, but for a full 26.2 miles? That's a toughie.<br /><br />However, that being said, I think you could run a sub-4 hour or better.Jesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01465800584212530717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-36567045401348632232009-10-06T07:46:15.417-04:002009-10-06T07:46:15.417-04:00Same here!! I have felt stumped. too. I do think t...Same here!! I have felt stumped. too. I do think the calculator is fairly accurate. So what's the deal? Simply put, I think it's race specific training. If we keep running with a deep base of miles, logging good MP runs, fueling and hydrating, hitting the perfect race day, we ought to get near the expected time?! Let's keep trying!Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13056617753977713306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-5787199598155511582009-10-06T07:39:49.130-04:002009-10-06T07:39:49.130-04:00I always thought those prediction calculators were...I always thought those prediction calculators were way too optimistic, I wouldn't worry about not meeting the numbers. By the time you can run a 4 hour marathon, you'll probably be able to do a sub 1:40 half...EndorphinBuzzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18122842317916411387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-49429292533475212092009-10-06T07:38:02.566-04:002009-10-06T07:38:02.566-04:00i have the reverse problem! my half time indicates...i have the reverse problem! my half time indicates i should be running a faster 5k and 10k...<br /><br />but, i think these calculators should be taken in stride. i wouldn't use a 5k time to predict my marathon 'cause those are two totally different beasts! a half/full comparison seems at least a bit more reliable to me.<br /><br />i would look at it as - you can totally chase down a sub-4, and work your way down from there :) but, there's also nothing wrong with rockin' the shorter races and running marathons more for fun.Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17720800873803974929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-76510265904299750662009-10-06T07:10:03.938-04:002009-10-06T07:10:03.938-04:00I noticed your skew towards the shorter races a lo...I noticed your skew towards the shorter races a long time ago. IMHO, McMillan is entirely right, if your speed was spread evenly across all the distances, you *should* be doing around a 4 hour marathon and BQing as one of your goals. Not being an expert on this, you probably have a higher percentage of fast twitch muscles, making you stronger in sprint-type events. If you enjoy marathons, then don't stop doing them, but understand that is perhaps not your forte.<br /><br />http://sportsmedicine.about.com/od/anatomyandphysiology/a/MuscleFiberType.htmZorbshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06104489259932257794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37373654.post-44598618590467303852009-10-06T06:29:51.163-04:002009-10-06T06:29:51.163-04:00I have no advice about the numbers because I have ...I have no advice about the numbers because I have not been running or even thinking about it much. Just stopping by to say hello.Carlyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00967080850862781446noreply@blogger.com